The coming winter, how difficult for Europe?
On September 26, global attention was drawn to three leaks in the Beixi-1 and Beixi-2, two of Russia’s major submarine pipelines carrying natural gas to Europe.
The Swedish Coast Guard was quoted by the Swedish media on 28th as saying that there are 4 leaks in the gas pipeline. The fourth leak has been found on the 27th, located in the sea near Sweden, “Beixi-2” pipeline.
According to AFP Stockholm, Sweden and the French presidency of the Security Council said on the 28th that the UN Security Council will meet on the afternoon of the 30th at the UN headquarters in New York to discuss the possible leak of the Nord Stream gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea due to sabotage.
On Sept. 29, Swedish television reported that Nord Stream AG, the gas pipeline AG, said the extent of damage to the Beixi-1 and Beixi-2 pipelines must be investigated immediately after the pipelines are emptied.
The investigation could take several weeks. Now can not answer the severity of the damage and whether it can be repaired, hope to start the investigation on the 2nd or 3rd.
Affected, the European PV market has been a big hit this year. According to Gessey PV Consulting statistics, Chinese solar module manufacturers shipped more than 60GW of solar modules to all of Europe from January to August 2022, and there is huge demand for Chinese-made products in Europe during the continent’s severe energy crisis.
China exported 18.1GW of solar modules to European developers in Q1 2022 and 26.5GW in Q2 2022. in July 2022, exports were around 9.1GW, while in August 2022, China exported 8.7GW of solar panels to Europe.
The strife between Russia and Ukraine has led to soaring electricity and gas prices and increased demand for renewable energy, accelerating the deployment of PV.
If Europe continues to purchase solar modules from China at an average rate of 5GW per month, this means that the continent will import more than 80GW of solar modules from China in 2022.
According to SolarPower Europe’s forecast, new PV installations in Europe are expected to be in the range of 39-48GW in 2022, with the amount of modules imported from China far exceeding the forecast and the European PV market booming.
In addition, the German weekly Der Spiegel reported on September 29 that German security authorities believe that the Nord Stream pipeline leak was caused by an “explosive device of great energy”. The report said that the explosive device is equivalent to 500 kg of TNT.
In addition to the cause of the accident, the impact of the Nord Stream gas pipeline leak and its subsequent development are also the focus of global attention.
As for the repair work of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, the Russian side responded that there are two options to repair the Nord Stream gas pipeline, but due to technical difficulties, the repair work may take six months to a year.
At present, the price of natural gas, which is the wind vane of energy in Europe, continues to soar. As of Sept. 8, the Dutch natural gas TTF index closed at 220.54 euros/MWh, which is four times the price of the same period last year; the U.S. NYMEX natural gas futures price is also 1.62 times the price of the same period last year.
Affected by the reduced supply of nuclear power and hydropower, which are mainly generated by natural gas, European electricity prices soared to more than five times the usual level. The price of electricity in Europe is actually determined by the price of natural gas.
Along with record high natural gas prices, German electricity spot prices reached a high of 425 euros/MWH in early September, more than 5 times the same period, while German and French electricity futures prices exceeded 800 euros/MWH, more than 10 times the same period last year.
IHS Markit senior analyst Dan Hu recently said that global demand reached a median level of 262GW in 2022 and 326GW in 2023. in the next 8 years, the proportion of overall European PV demand and the speed of installation is significantly accelerated, especially after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, European electricity prices have ushered in a record high, for self-generation of household PV, energy storage demand is significantly The demand for self-powered household PV and energy storage has increased significantly. From the point of view of project reserves, basically to the next 8 years after the project reserves are close to 200GW, there are 60GW is from Spain, so the release of demand is still guaranteed.
It’s not just photovoltaic products. Including China’s traditional electric blanket products, there has also been a surge. According to customs data released by the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, in the first seven months of this year, China’s total exports of electric blankets to Europe reached $33.4 million, almost twice as much as in the whole of last year.
1.29 million electric blankets were imported from China by 27 EU countries in July. Britain imported 582,000 Chinese electric blankets in August alone.
U.K. retail leader John Lewis Partnership Plc said sales of electric blankets were up 67 percent from a year ago and online searches for the products climbed nearly 470 percent.
As for the household energy storage market, Zhu Yue, a power equipment industry analyst at CITIC Capital Securities, pointed out in his latest report that soaring electricity prices in Europe have brought opportunities for household light storage.
which continues to maintain good economics and has become the fastest growing direction in the large new energy sector.
High electricity and gas prices have made electricity unaffordable a pain point for European households.
CITIC Investment pointed out that, in contrast, the European household light storage system continues to maintain good economics, become the fastest growing direction of the large new energy sector.
The study shows that grid-scale energy storage demand in Europe will grow 97% year-on-year to 2.8GW/3.3GWh in 2022 alone, reflecting the emergence of energy storage systems as a mainstream energy technology.
Over the next decade, the top 10 European markets will add 73GWh of energy storage, equivalent to 90% of new deployments.